Reaction About Crime Statistics ~ Annapolis Capital Punishment
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Sunday, February 10, 2008

Reaction About Crime Statistics

Our police department collects crime data but how they are analyzed and reported is not clear. CP thinks that as a part of the crime-fighting "Plan" such things should be presented to the public on a monthly basis for commentary and input. An annual press release saying "crime is down" is woefully inadequate.

In a recent posting about the Eastport Gunfire Taskforce, CP commented on a presentation by local activists Dennis Conti and Trudy McFall who have been requesting, researching and presenting about city crime date. They are to be commended. However, for those unfamiliar with them, it will help to understand their background. Dennis, a radio engineer, has worked in the political campaigns of Councilman Josh Cohen and Alderman Ross Arnett. He was the executive director of the Housing Authority of Annapolis or HACA and a courageous anti-crime activist in the Clay Street Area. He is well respected and well known for his work. Trudy McFall, equally well known and respected heads up an Eastport-based affordable housing organization and was the president of the HACA board. I think it's fair to say that neither of them are allies of Mayor Moyer and that the excellent work they are doing is much appreciated. Ms. McFall is also a putative candidate for mayor. CP greatly appreciates their efforts, but as the holder of an MA from the University of Maryland College of Journalism, I have just enough academic knowledge to question research methods and research presentations. I do not question the judgment or the honesty of Dennis or Trudy, but only their ability to accurately and scientifically handle sociological data. In other words, none of us are experts, but we have experts nearby at AACC and at College Park, which according to a 2005 U.S. News and World Reports ranking of the quality of Criminology and Criminal Justice Doctoral programs, the Maryland program is number one out of the thirty-two programs ranked.

In response to CP's recent posting, Dennis penned this:

Paul: Exactly what part of the data that we presented the other night do you have a question about? All that we did was take the data supplied by the City and plot and summarize it, there was no "interpretation." Thanks. Dennis

To which CP replied:

Dennis: Thanks for your note. This is something we have discussed in detail and you have said, if I recall correctly, that you agree the data should be subjected to a scholarly analysis. As I have read your reports, spoken with you and have seen you and Trudy make a number of presentations, it appears that you are of the belief that public housing and privately-owned subsidized housing are not focal points of crime. This appears to be an agenda. I live in Eastport and my eyes do not deceive.
To give one example, you take a small map and pinpoint locations where crimes occur and say that this shows how crime is spread around the city, rather than focused in those public housing areas. But it's essentially a scatter plot, and at one scale it almost visually convinces the viewer that crime is evenly spread. But a different type of display, either a bar or pie chart, or a scatter plot at a different scale, would show a different density and a different story. For example, look at West Annapolis on that illustration and you'll see there are hardly any points. But look at President Street and there appears to be many points. I say appear because they are so close together that we cannot count them.
A store can only be robbed where there is a store. A parking garage cannot only be robbed where there is a parking garage. An apartment is more likely to have more crime than a farm area because of density of people. All of these factors must be taken into consideration, and your studies just scratch the surface. This is why we need rigorous and scientific analysis. I don't think it's fair to ask or expect you and Trudy to do that, but it needs to be done.
There is a perception among others in Annapolis that the conclusions you appear to reach are not on firm footing. I completely support your efforts in gathering and presenting these statistics and facts, and it angers me that our police department is not doing this on a monthly basis and instead volunteers such as you and Trudy have stepped forward to do this. However, I stand by my original and consistent belief that in order for citizens to understand these data, we need a third-party sociology or criminology professional to review, analyze and produce displays that have absolutely no political motivation. Thanks to you and Trudy for your efforts. Please feel free to use CP to post material, or to publish a commentary.

And a response from Dennis Conti:

Paul:

Thanks for your nice comments about the contributions Trudy McFall and I have made to Annapolis. For the record, I have a BS, MS, and PhD in computer science, and Trudy has a BA and an MA from Bryn Mawr in sociology with a specialty in social problems. We would welcome an outside analysis by someone more expert specifically in crime who would give their volunteer time as we have to more fully analyze the police data. We certainly do however have the academic background to produce the simple, summary data reports that we have.

Also, we don't want to leave you or your readers with the impression that public housing is not a focal point of crime. On the contrary, both of us have worked tirelessly over the last few years with volunteer time and energy to highlight and work to solve the problem of crime on public housing property.

Dennis

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