Annapolis Capital Punishment

O'Malley Ahead? Leopold Ahead? Asti Ahead? Pro Slots Ahead?...OOOH   you'll have to click here to read the good stuff....

Here is what I gather from Gonzales' latest poll taking into account the margin of error of 3.5 points:

Governor's Race---While other polls show O'Malley leading, the first part of this poll which was released earlier, also shows O'Malley slightly ahead and I believe that statistically the race is evenly divided and anybody's guess at this point. The key is TURNOUT--duhh! Gonzales discusses this in detail, focusing on the disparity between affiliations and reminds us that Democrats strongly outnumber Republicans statewide. He notes that Ehrlich is polling almost 2:1 on the Eastern Shore, more than 2:1 in Western Maryland but only eight points ahead in the Baltimore suburbs where he says "This election for Ehrlich was always going to be won or lost in the Baltimore suburbs. An 8 point advantage is not enough to offset O’Malley’s tally in the Washington suburbs." Poll data show that O'Malley collects 70% to 16% in the vote-rich Baltimore City and a 65% to 25% lead in the vote-rich Washington suburbs. It does not appear that his running-mate choice has helped in that regard.

Question A on slots---Also evenly divided and anybody's guess at this point. Gonzales says "The key finding here is that, two weeks before the election, Question A is being propped up by registered Democrats in the County, as a majority of Republicans and independents are against it."

Gonzales adds that "Proponents of slots at Arundel Mills will likely need to flip some of these voters by November 2nd."

County Executive---Leopold out way ahead with Conti a distant second and Shay an even more distant third. I think only a major misstep on Leopold's part will stop the incumbent now....but there could be an eleventh-hour surprise considering his legal challenges....I'm only speculating  a "what if ?". Undecideds will not make a difference but expect Conti to keep up pressure and attacks with questions about Leopold's character while Shay will continue to talk storm water, runoff, land preservation. Leopold will continue to remind voters of his record (See my column The Ninth Ward appearing in Wednesday's The Capital.....www.capitalonline.com  under "Opinion".

Circuit Court Judges---Republican challenger Alison Asti remains strong and about even with Laura Kiessling while Ron Jarashow is showing weakness.....HOWEVER...as Gonzales clearly shows, "with 44% of the electorate completely undecided, this contest will be decided in the next 2 weeks." I am not sure what "completely undecided" means but it could be about voter's level of intensity or confusion or befuddlement or boredom....Watch for this race to get very heated....jobs and prestige are at stake! There are two votes allowed for three candidates....and there were plenty of "no votes" in the poll.


The survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 11th through October 16th, 2010. A total of 816 registered voters in Maryland who are likely to vote in the 2010 general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race. An oversampling to 405 voters in Anne Arundel County was also conducted. Interviews were balanced by legislative district to reflect general election voting
patterns in the county. Margin for error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

And if I have not bored you enough, you can get a good update at MarylandReporter at http://marylandreporter.com/slots-vote-close-poll-finds.aspx or you can see the poll data and results at www.gonzalesresearch.com

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