ACP's Election Predictions....How Did I Do? ~ Annapolis Capital Punishment

Thursday, November 4, 2010

ACP's Election Predictions....How Did I Do?

All in all, I even surprised myself and did pretty well. Below I show what I posted at the time the polls closed Tuesday and IN RED what the unofficial results are as of Wednesday evening. These results may change slightly due to absentee, provisional and military ballots etc. They are also rounded off. This is what I wrote on Tuesday evening:

So, how did I do? We'll know Wednesday morning. And as I said, if I do well, nobody will remember, but if I am all wrong....we'll just wait and see, but at least I put it out here. to the "victory parties"....look to Thursday's The Capital for my The Ninth Ward column this week.
So, read it and judge for yourself:

Governor:  O'Malley 54 and Ehrlich 46.   
                    O'Malley 56%  Ehrlich 42%

I was close but I also wrote that Ehrlich would do better than predicted in the opinion polls. I was wrong in that respect but the hyper-Republicans who pooh-poohed all the polls showing O'Malley ahead by 14% were really, I mean really wrong! They were incredulous. I wonder if they'll admit it now.

US Senate: Mikulski in a big-win. Of course. We know that. That's also what every poll says. And I never understood her ad about the overpriced dinner banquet, but I liked Wargotz's cute but amateurish ad about the "Insidersaurus."  Mikulski 62% and Wargotz %38

I did pretty darn well here.  Mikulski got 63% and Wargotz got 36%.
Congress:  In the First......Kratovil will eke out a victory over Harris, perhaps by just a percentage point or so. The Libertarian Davis and the Independent Wilson will collectively gather about two percent. 

I was wrong. Harris not only won, he won big at 55% to 42% and the Libertarian Davis got almost 4%.

In the Third: Sarbanes is likely to get between 60 and 65%.

I did well. Sarbanes got 61% to Wilhelm's 36%.

In the Fifth  Charles Lollar will clean up in St Mary's and Charles County but Hoyer will be secure in his seat, thanks to the vote-rich PG County. They will be closer in Anne Arundel County but Lollar may prevail there too. I give Hoyer about 55% to Lollar's 45%, and it may very well be Hoyer's worst showing ever.
Overall, I was way off, but at the county level, I called it just about 50-50. It was not Hoyer's worst showing ever, but among the worst and here is what happened. Hoyer got 64% to Lollar's 35% overall but while Lollar lost in Charles by a similar margin where I wrongly predicted he would "clean up", he got 55% in Anne Arundel  where I correctly said it would be closer and he might prevail, to Hoyer's 43%; he got 57% in St. Mary's where I predicted he would "clean up"; and as I did predict, Hoyer got 82% in Prince Georges County.

County Executive: Leopold will gain a majority, perhaps about  55% to Conti gathering about 40% and Shay will poll between 5% and 10%.

Leopold got 51%, with Conti at 44% and Shay at about 5% so I consider this was reasonably well predicted.

State Senate 30:  I am saying Astle at 51% and Elfenbein at 49%.
Well, here I was right-on. The race has not been conceded yet with Astle at just about 51% and Elfenbein at just about 49%

State Delegate 30: I believe that the incumbents will be returned to office. Ron George may very well be the top-vote-getter in this six-way race, but I believe the incumbents will be bunched up tightly together at the top. I put Herb McMillan in a tight fourth and Judd Legum closely followed in fifth and Seth Howard in sixth place.
A mixed bag here. George did come in first at just over 19% as I suspected he might, closely followed by Busch with about 18% but McMillan got third with 17%. Clagett actually came in fourth with about 15% but I did say she would be re-elected, which she was not. After Clagett came Howard and Legum in last. I predicted them in the last two spots but in reverse order.

Circuit Court Judges: Laura Kiessling in first and Asti and Jarashow just about even in almost a tie for second place.  I think Asti may just inch past Jarashow.
Kiessling got a strong first (40%) followed by Asti (34%) and Jarashow (27%) which was not exactly close, in third place.

Sheriff:  I give Bateman the edge in the low fifties and Jameson in the upper forties.
Bateman did win but it was not so close. He got 58% to Jameson's 42%.

States Attorney: I give the edge to Weathersbee with 55% and Grannon at 45%.
Weathersbee did get the edge, but it was only an edge. It's at 51% to 49%.

County Council:  In Six, Chris Trumbauer will win with between 55% and 60% and Burkhardt will get 40% to 45%.
Trumbauer did win at 53% to 47%, so I was pretty close here.

In Seven, this is a toss-up and I ain't sayin'. It will be really close.
My worst showing of the night. Walker walked away with 64% to 38% over Jacobsen.

and finally...Question A
I think that Question A will win with a razor thin victory.
Question A did win but with a much wider margin.


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