Annapolis Capital Punishment

Below are only predictions, not endorsements or wishful thinking.  I am doing this partly for fun, partly because I like to take risks and because I am always willing to be as transparent and straightforward with readers as I expect candidates and elected officials to be with us. If my predictions are correct, I will be hailed as the next Nostradamus, which might possibly increase my Technorati rating by a million points, attract a cult-like following of worshipful groupies obsessed with local politics and immediately catapult me to stardom as I sit at the right side of the keyboard with Ariana Huffington. Maybe. ????



But on the other hand....if I am wrong--which has been known to happen, and as some would argue, quite frequently,well, so be it. It's just one dude's predictions--but this dude put it in writing. I am not predicting that an asteroid will turn the Earth into a hemorrhoid. It's just one local primary election in one small city. So read on...

This is based simply on observation, anecdotal evidence and talking with a lot of people. Only one candidate can win tonight but I can't win--even if my predictions are spot on. Somebody will be angry at me for something or another--happens all the time. But if I did not take risks, who would be reading this blog?  I am also going against what might be considered the "conventional wisdom". We had a dozen prognosticators--real political buffs, insiders you know--at the last Sip N' Blog and in our blind voting, they more or less said something different than what I am predicting now--the conventional wisdom. They may be right. Oh well. This one is up in the air. Everybody believes it is going to be close--and absentee ballots may be decisive. We shall see shortly. Results should be posted at www.capitalonline.com and www.annapolis.gov

perhaps by around 0830--but there will still be absentee ballots.  And now, drum roll please....

CP predicts......
Republican turnout will be extremely low (how's that for going out on a limb?

Furthermore.....

CP predicts...
Dave Cordle will go on to the general in November.  Okay? How's that?

Pretty cheeky of me--eh?And not only that...

CP predicts...
that Chris Fox, the Independent, will also go on to the general in November.

How am I doing so far??   Not risky enough you say?  Then read on...

I originally predicted that the large field of candidates, each of whom has a sphere of influence, friends and contacts would raise voter interest and actual voting. With such an interesting race with so many people, I thought turnout would be strong. I was not so sure about that after looking at the morning figures. Then I saw Josh Stewart's posting at The Capital online and it was way worse than I thought. Still water may run deep, but apathy runs....deeeeeeeeper.

CP predicts...
Ward One, second heaviest voter turnout by percentage of registered Democrats, will go for Trudy McFall, Josh Cohen, and Zina Pierre in that order.
CP predicts...
that Dick Israel will be the overwhelming favorite for Alderman! (very risky of me...)

Ward Two will be really close. Cohen, McFall and Sears Deppa live there and it includes some of the wealthiest and some of the least affluent areas of the city...
CP predicts...
that Alderman Fred Paone will get the Republican nomination....and I am receiving strong signals that he will retain his seat in the general. Seriously...I think Cohen will edge out a win over McFall with Pierre in a close third.


Ward Three will be Zina Pierre's best showing with over 50% and McFall and Cohen virtually tied for second place.


Ward Four will go to Zina Pierre approaching 50% followed by Cohen and then McFall. Remaining votes will be more or less evenly divided but this will be Taylor's best showing.

CP predicts....
Sheila Finlayson will be the Dems pick for Alderwoman.

Ward Five will be won by Trudy McFall, followed closely by Josh Cohen and Zina Pierre.

Ward Six --Zina Pierre wins followed by Cohen and then McFall.

Ward Seven--McFall will edge out Cohen, followed closely by Pierre. Shropshire will have his best showing here.

Ward Eight-Heaviest turnout percentage. Here I think the three will be bunched closest together. McFall wins, Cohen second, Pierre third

Unfortunately my crystal ball broke when my psychic dog pounded on it. I tried to call Gandalf for help but he was busy fighting Sauron. Yodah was hiding out somewhere on Dagoba and Karnak was unavailable. I was SOOL....(Seer out of luck)

I now bring you my prediction for the citywide results:
*McFall wins at 33%
*Cohen at  32%
*Pierre with 30%
*Shropshire  1%
*Sears-Deppa  1%
*Taylor  1%

Yeah. I think it's gonna be that close. And if Cohen or Pierre win bigtime, as some are expecting, well, then I would be wrong...

My first prediction, as I drafted this, was for Pierre to edge out McFall. As tonight approached, I switched my prediction to McFall for a few reasons. I think that her door-knocking focus resonated with voters. Renaut's support may have brought her over the edge. Despite Pierre's strong campaigning and deep support, and committed volunteers, she had to overcome voter's lack of familiarity with her in many areas. I think voters will choose McFall over Pierre and Cohen because of her executive experience and support for the council-manager form of government, especially in crucial Wards 1 and 8 which Aldermen Israel and Arnett represent, may make a difference as Cohen and Pierre have opposed this. I believe that Cohen has run the most powerful and organized campaign and is popular-- deservedly so. He is well-liked by many voters, but I believe he may suffer a backlash of many otherwise likely supporters because of his apparent affiliation with Mayor Moyer and his movement between elected office to which these same people elected him.  I believe that Renaut was going to be the fourth place finisher all along, and his exit and support of McFall will make a difference in Ward One, but also a slight difference in other parts of the city. Certainly some of his supporters chose other candidates--and he will even get votes tonight, but his support to McFall may be a factor here. On the other hand--Cohen has never lost an election--and he has been in a lot of them. He is probably best known of all the candidates. Pierre had a secret weapon--Bill Clinton--and I think this can only have helped.

On the other hand, what will such low voter turnout mean?

All of these three candidates have run excellent campaigns but all the candidates have worked long and hard. Again I tip my hat to all of them.

Whew. I did it. We shall see. In any event--we all win because it was a good, clean election with respect and civility--with one glaring and stealthy exception, and a few minor ones, but they will have little effect, except maybe to move us to clarify and strengthen election laws and enforcement. 
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 And when it comes to covering elections, nobody does it better than "The Onion".....


Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early...........................

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