My Broken Crystal Ball...Thanks for Not Rubbing It In Too Much ~ Annapolis Capital Punishment

Friday, September 18, 2009

My Broken Crystal Ball...Thanks for Not Rubbing It In Too Much

Here were predictions I posted when polls closed (in black) followed by actual post-election results and comments in red. Results used are the official results after absentee ballots got counted. CP predicts......

Republican turnout will be extremely low (how's that for going out on a limb? Got that right!


CP predicts...
Dave Cordle will go on to the general in November.  Okay? How's that?   Got that right!

Pretty cheeky of me--eh?And not only that...

CP predicts...
that Chris Fox, the Independent, will also go on to the general in November.  Got that right!

How am I doing so far??   Not risky enough you say?  Then read on...So far batting 100 percent!

I originally predicted that the large field of candidates, each of whom has a sphere of influence, friends and contacts would raise voter interest and actual voting. With such an interesting race with so many people, I thought turnout would be strong. I was not so sure about that after looking at the morning figures. Then I saw Josh Stewart's posting at The Capital online and it was way worse than I thought. But it ended up about where it usually does with 29% of registered Democrats. Still water may run deep, but apathy runs....deeeeeeeeper.  Wrong on that one...

CP predicts...
Ward One, second heaviest voter turnout by percentage of registered Democrats, will go for Trudy McFall, Josh Cohen, and Zina Pierre in that order. Well almost....Cohen won, followed very closely by McFall and then Pierre got a distant third, but it was the second heaviest Democratic turnout by percentage, as I predicted, at 36%

CP predicts...
that Dick Israel will be the overwhelming favorite for Alderman! (very risky of me...) Got That one right--not bad...

Ward Two will be really close. Cohen, McFall and Sears Deppa live there and it includes some of the wealthiest and some of the least affluent areas of the city...
CP predicts...
that Alderman Fred Paone will get the Republican nomination....Got That one right! Yeah!

and I am receiving strong signals that he will retain his seat in the general.

Seriously...I think Cohen will edge out a win over McFall with Pierre in a close third.  Not at all. Cohen won big, followed by Pierre in a distant second, and McFall just slightly behind Pierre. Ooops.

Ward Three will be Zina Pierre's best showing with over 50% and McFall and Cohen virtually tied for second place. In 3-03 Pierre got nearly 75% of the vote--wow! In 3-13 she got almost half. For the ward, Pierre got 305 out of 473 votes cast which is more than 60%. Cohen  got 82 and McFall got 68. So I did fairly well here, but was it Pierre's "best" ward? Yes, by a bit more than in Four. So I do pretty well here.

Ward Four will go to Zina Pierre approaching 50% followed by Cohen and then McFall. Remaining votes will be more or less evenly divided but this will be Taylor's best showing. There were 406 votes and Pierre got 255 or over 60% again. Cohen got 88, McFall got 48. I was correct here but Pierre did better than 50%.  I believe it was Taylor's second best showing by a few votes.

CP predicts....
Sheila Finlayson will be the Dems pick for Alderwoman.  Okay--right again--I made the right pick, but oh man, did Sheila make the wrong pick.....and in Pierre's best ward....poor Sheila....tsk tsk...

Ward Five will be won by Trudy McFall, followed closely by Josh Cohen and Zina Pierre. I think Ward Five was the biggest surprise to just about everyone. 326 votes were cast. Pierre--133, Cohen 114 and McFall, 66. Hmmm....???? Wrong again...

Ward Six --Zina Pierre wins followed by Cohen and then McFall. 331 total. 227 for Pierre. 54 for Cohen. 42 for McFall. Okay, I got that right.

Ward Seven--McFall will edge out Cohen, followed closely by Pierre. Shropshire will have his best showing here. 429 cast.  Cohen got 155. Pierre 149 and McFall 120. Got the first part wrong, but Cohen was followed closely by Pierre as predicted. I think this was the closest ward--maybe? If zero or one or two is the best showing for anyone, I guess I was right on that one about Shropshire but am not sure.

Ward Eight-Heaviest turnout percentage. Here I think the three will be bunched closest together. McFall wins, Cohen second, Pierre third.  Well-it did get the heaviest Democrat turnout by percentage at 37% so I was right there, but....out of 583 cast,  Cohen got 265, McFall got 200 and Pierre got 112--so they were not really close as predicted--more like just under 50%, about 30% and about 20% in real rough percentages--and I got the order wrong too.

I now bring you my prediction for the citywide results:
*McFall wins at 33% 

*Cohen at  32%          

*Pierre with 30%         

Okay so I was a little out of order...well, a lot...because 
Pierre got 38%
Cohen got 35% 
McFall got 25% 
*Shropshire  1% 
*Sears-Deppa  1%
*Taylor  1%
Well--those last three were more or less correct...but how come they never seemed to know that?

Yeah. I think it's gonna be that close. And if Cohen or Pierre win bigtime, as some are expecting, well, then I would be wrong...Well, it was close, especially for Cohen and Piere..but not for McFall.

This is what I published on election night before the polls closed:

"My first prediction, as I drafted this, was for Pierre to edge out McFall. As tonight approached, I switched my prediction to McFall for a few reasons."   

You know what I did wrong? Three things--First, my original hunch was correct. Just like they say when taking tests--your first answer is usually correct. I should have stuck with it. Two--I listened to "insiders" and "conventional wisdom" that told me a Pierre victory could not happen. Three, I looked at low voter turnout and really though it would hurt Pierre, but boy was I wrong on that account. Four--I felt there would be more dissatisfaction with Cohen as sort of a protest vote against Moyer.

Well there you have it. How did I do overall? You be the judge. How were your predictions? I hope to do this for the general. Thanks for reading.

Join us every Thursday morning, from 8-9 am for our Sip N' Blog at ZU Coffee, 934 Bay Ridge Road, Annapolis, Maryland, in the Giant Shopping Center. Sept-24--Jennifer Monteith. Stop by on your way to work for your morning latte and meet other local activists. Zu now has a drive-thru window!


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