Annapolis Capital Punishment

The answer is maybe, but not as much as McMillan wants him to be.........Is Speaker Mike Busch really in jeopardy? Are McMillan and Pollsters Blowing Smoke? The answer is of course, who knows? However, someting does not sit right with a news release from District 30's challenger Herb McMillan who wants to not only become a delegate but unseat House Speaker Mike Busch and Virginia Clagett in the process.

McMillan reports on a survey by Public Opinion Strategies of 250 likely voters in District 30, the results of which he says showed incumbent Ron George, the only Republican representing the district, maintaining his base of support and being re-elected. In separate head-to-head match ups against House Speaker Michael Busch and Virginia Clagett, Maryland Taxpayers Association President Herb McMillan beats both by double digits.

I can see the D340 races being pretty close and McMillan is a strong candidate, but double digits victory??

"Our goal is to ensure that Ron George keeps his seat, and for us to win Michael Busch's," said Herb McMillan. "In his 24 years in office, Busch has voted for every budget and tax increase. Spending has grown from $8 billion to $32 billion, a 400% increase, and Maryland has the 4th highest tax burden in the U.S. People understand that Maryland's record deficit puts their financial security at risk. They are energized by our message of creating jobs and jumpstarting the economy with tax cuts and reduced spending."

Okay, so that's McMillan's take on Busch and Democrats in general and as usual, there is a kernel of truth but plenty of other sides to this story. McMillan's release stated that voters rated the state budget and spending as their top concern, with jobs and the state economy coming in a strong second. OK. That would seem reasonable and normal and expected, but McMillan noted that "voters know that as Speaker of the House, Michael Busch has been Governor O'Malley's key legislative ally, leading the effort to push through his record spending and tax increases. In the 2006 election, Busch won by less than 4/10 of 1% of the vote. This poll shows that voters are ready for fiscally responsible leadership."

Is it really the fault of Democratic leadership and overspending? Is Maryland really so bad off? That of course is the subject of great debate, and the state is not Annapolis, where it is painfully clear that the Democratic stranglehold is responsible, but what about four year's of Ehrlich? Well, not surprisingly, the survey also showed Ehrlich ahead of O'Malley in the district by 10 points. "Ehrlich's strong support in our district is a very positive sign for us. Bob Ehrlich has repeatedly said, "if you're voting for Bob Ehrlich, you should be voting for Herb McMillan".

I dunno. I'm not sure I'd want to be totally associated with either Ehrlich, O'Malley or Busch, but this is what gets me. What are we to make of a poll that only surveyed 250 likely voters? 250? Is that a normal and reasonable sample? How randomly selected were the respondents?  The McMillan release states that the poll ran June 7-8, 2010 with a margin of error of +6.2%. It surveyed 43% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 18% lean/Independent.

Okay. So they must have selected respondents from a voter roll beforehand because they are likely voters, or one would assume. I mean, did it just so happen that after randomly selecting the 250, they just happened to get 43% Democrats and 37% Republicans? I'm going to need to confirm this, but does that reflect the district's breakdown? Should it? Of course it should, but this poll has a 6.2% MARGIN OF ERROR!!!!!! Whoaaa.....hold on a second.  That's a big and uncomfortably big margin, but who is Public Opinion Strategies? They are perhaps the largest Republican polling firm in the US. If public opinion polls are supposed to be "scientific" and reflect actual scientific facts, why should a firm be of any political persuasion or leaning?  gee whizz, do you think that might have some bearing on the poll's formulation, strategies and results? D'ya think????


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