ACP's Election Night Predictions ~ Annapolis Capital Punishment

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

ACP's Election Night Predictions

TUESDAY 8 pm...I do this every election and am not sure why--especially since I am usually off the mark WAY off the mark. I don't have such a hot average but I may make it better this time--sort of like a gambler, but there is no money involved. Well, readers know what I think of endorsements (except I do note that every newspaper in the First District is strongly endorsing Frank Kratovil and saying the same thing about Andy Harris--have you noted that? And by the way, this is NOT an endorsement...)  but I digress, so here on election night, as the polls close, I publish my predictions before the entire blogosphere--or any of the few local political geeks who care to actually read this. And as I like to say, if I am right on, nobody will remember but if I screw up, everyone of my loudmouthed detractors will sharpen their keyboards to blast me...or maybe nobody cares either way, but here goes:


Governor: Of course I say O'Malley wins, so does every poll. I am just not sure it will be by 14 points or so as some say. I think it will be a bit closer but it will take a huge turnout for Ehrlich in ther Baltimore area to win. Say something like O'Malley 54 and Ehrlich 46.

US Senate: Mikulski in a big-win. Of course. We know that. That's also what every poll says. And I never understood her ad about the overpriced dinner banquet, but I liked Wargotz's cute but amateurish ad about the "Insidersaurus."  Mikulski 62% and Wargotz %38
Congress:  In the First......Kratovil will eke out a victory over Harris, perhaps by just a percentage point or so. The Libertarian Davis and the Independent Wilson will collectively gather about two percent. If Andy Harris loses, perhaps the anesthesiologist will have to sedate himself. This race of course will be big news statewide and nationally.

In the Third: Sarbanes is likely to get between 60 and 65%. Jim Wilhelm has worked hard but everything except the national mood is in favor of the popular and politically pedigreed incumbent in this gerrymandered Democratic district.

In the Fifth  Hoyer, the quintessential incumbent and Democratic power-player is not likely to fall victim to the national mood.  But he's not gonna slide to victory either. Charles Lollar has mounted an impressive campaign and will clean up in St Mary's and Charles County but Hoyer will be secure his seat, thanks to the vote-rich PG County. They will be closer in Anne Arundel County but Lollar may prevail there too. I give Hoyer about 55% to Lollar's 45%, and it may very well be Hoyer's worst showing ever. (Keep an eye on Lollar--he is headed to more national attention no matter what happens!)

County Executive: Leopold will gain a majority, perhaps about  55% to Conti gathering about 40% and  Shay will poll between 5% and 10%. Yeah, no surprises here. I go by the polls. Shay will do his best of course in South County.  Leopold does this through his unusual style of campaigning. I saw not a single Leopold sign at any of the dozen or so polling places I visited today but I did see one across the street. All they say is "Leopold" and Shay's signs, a green background with white, cursive all-caps letters are just about unnoticeable and unreadable. Conti's signs are cool...very hip and moderne.

State Senate 30:  John Astle has never appeared to be an enthusiastic campaigner and I think this time he has not responded well to a very powerful and energetic campaign by Ron Elfenbein. However, I think the power of incumbency with a lawmaker who is well-known and well-liked will put Astle back in office--barely.  I think it will be pretty close. I am saying Astle at 51% and Elfenbein at 49%.

State Delegate 30: Ouch. Here is where it is really tough. I could be way wrong here and since I know all of the six candidates personally, I am going out on a limb.The biggest question for any voter in the Annapolis area  might very well be Busch or no Busch. However, I believe that the incumbents will be returned to office. Busch and Clagett, as with Astle (mentioned above), are longtime and popular incumbents. Despite their flaws and the national mood, knowing so many voters on a first-name basis for so long will again propel them to victory. Ron George, who has distinguished himself as a moderate Republican willing to listen and work with both parties, may very well be the top-vote-getter in this six-way race, but I believe the incumbents will be bunched up tightly together at the top. I put Herb McMillan in a tight fourth and Judd Legum closely followed in fifth and Seth Howard, who has had to struggle with lack of name recognition in sixth place.

A major turnover in District 30 especially if it were to include the loss of House Speaker Busch or to bring in freshmen and/or more members of the minority (and what will remain as such) Republican Party would have far reaching effects on our area's ability to gain clout in the General Assembly
Circuit Court Judges: Ouch again. Laura Kiessling in first and Asti and Jarashow just about even in almost a tie for second place. Not sure where to go but I can't equivocate. Based on her strong showing in the primary (despite her inexcusable last minute literature surprise), I think Asti may just inch past Jarashow.

Sheriff:  It's been bitter but I don't think we're ready for a new sheriff in town. Jameson has mounted a good, strong campaign and has articulated the differences between himself and Sheriff Ron Bateman but I don't think the voters necessarily think it's time for a change, but it will be close. I give Bateman the edge in the low fifties and Jameson in the upper forties.

States Attorney: Similar to the State Senate race, I don't see Weathersbee as an enthusiastic campaigner whereas Grannon is an animated  campaigner with excellent public speaking skills. Grannon has worked hard, pumping the flesh and working for a victory. But he is a newcomer, has limited prosecutorial experience and Weathersbee is well known. I give the edge to Weathersbee with 55% and Grannon at 45%.

County Council:  In Six, Chris Trumbauer will rally Democrats and win with between 55% and 60% and Burkhardt will get 40% to %45. This is pretty much a partisan down-the-line-vote but Trumbauer has run a surprisingly strong campaign and has articulated his positions more clearly.

In Seven, this is a toss-up and I ain't sayin'. It will be really close. Jacobsen? Walker? I've not followed it as closely as the Sixth or other races though I have met with both candidates. I think Jacobsen will do really well in the West area and Walker will do well in the South, but I am going to punt on this one...

and finally...Question A
Here I have made consistent and repeated appeals not to have slots. Unlike candidates, where I refrain from endorsements, here I have been actively taking a side opposed to slots. I do however think that Question A will win with a razor thin victory and we will see slots at the Mills. It may take a long time to count the votes. How can you argue with a slogan such as "Jobs and Revenue"? I may have to take a job polishing slot machine handles.....
So, how did I do? We'll know Wednesday morning. And as I said, if I do well, nobody will remember, but if I am all wrong....we'll just wait and see, but at least I put it out here. to the "victory parties"....look to Thursday's The Capital for my The Ninth Ward column this week.


Look here for frequent updates to all the 2010 election campaigns with 2010 Elections Again! LISTEN TO CP Publisher Paul Foer on 1430WNAV at 8:15 every weekday morning or click on the WNAV icon to the right, press On demand and On The Foerfront to listen. READ CP Publisher Paul Foer's "The Ninth Ward" every Wednesday in The Capital at Identified comments are always welcome. ALL ANONYMOUS COMMENTS will be automatically rejected without being opened.


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