CP Predicts Cohen Edges Out Cordle and Fox to ~ Annapolis Capital Punishment

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

CP Predicts Cohen Edges Out Cordle and Fox to

I simply had to keep the picture of Johnny Carson as Karnak from last month's primary. Below are only predictions. If my predictions are correct, I will be hailed as the next Nostradamus, which might possibly increase my Technorati rating by a million points, attract a cult-like following of worshipful groupies obsessed with local politics and immediately catapult me to stardom as I sit at the right side of the keyboard with Ariana Huffington. And Bill Maher. Maybe. ????

But on the other hand....if I am wrong--which has been known to happen--too often, as in the primary for example where I listened to "conventional wisdom" rather than trusting my instincts. Ultimately it's just one dude's predictions--but this dude puts it in writing.

This is based on observation, anecdotal evidence, some limited polling data and talking with a lot of people.  As with the primary, this one is up in the air. Most people believes it is going to be close--at least among the mayoral candidates. Results should be posted at www.capitalonline.com and www.annapolis.gov perhaps by around 0830--but there will still be absentee ballots.  I'll be broadcasting live on 1430 WNAV from about 9 to 10 pm tonight, so please tune in. And now, drum roll please....

I think there are huge numbers of folks undecided who either stayed home or did not know who to vote for until they were in the voting booth. I think Cohen, who might have been a shoe-in had a number of things happened differently,  has been damaged and his polling data made his campaign really worry which is why he has pulled out all the stops. But WOW--Democrats have so much staked on this tiny town, whose electorate make up such a tiny percentage of either county or statewide voters. Yes we are the capital, but what's up? I think it's about having everyone in place for the fall, or maybe it's about re-districting (?) or maybe it's about fear of being upset and embarrassed in the state capital, or maybe it's about the hopes of continued grooming for a young up-and-comer, or maybe it is fear of a crack in the wall of Democratic dominance or maybe something to do with state-wide office holders who have staked their claim or who knows?

CP predicts...
Ward One, usually has heavy voter turnout, but I think this will be the closest of all the wards, with each candidate polling an even one-third split. I think the 2 am closing thing is all blown out of proportion and can hardly imagine that being a deciding factor.,..but maybe I am wrong. Alderman Dick Israel is unopposed.

Ward Two will also be really close with each candidate polling an almost even one-third split. Alderman Paone is unopposed.

Ward Three Cohen will win handily here, followed by Fox and Cordle more or less tied for second. Despite this being a gerrymandered ward with overwhelming Democratic majority, Republican challenger Scott Bowling will do well. He's run a strong campaign while incumbent Hoyle has been almost a no-show and is closely allied with Mayor Moyer. As with everywhere else, it all depends on turnout but I think Bowling could edge out Hoyle but turnout will be fairly low.

Ward Four will go to Cohen, followed by Fox and Cordle in almost a tie. Alderwoman Finlayson is unopposed. Turnout will also be low.

Ward Five will be won by Cordle, with Cohen and then Fox. Neither aldermanic candidate has run a bang-up campaign or raised much money and there are questions about Conley's background. Mat Silverman will edge out Jim Conley, but it will be close.

Ward Six will be won by Cohen, followed by Cordle and then Fox. Kenny Kirby ran and lost to Wayne Turner in 1993 and this same ward elected Julie Stankivic over incumbent Cynthia Carter. However, Dems vastly outnumber Republicans and the Dems poured a lot of money but not much else into the aldermanic race. Kirby did not raise a single penny here. I think it will be much closer than the party numbers might otherwise indicate and Stiverson will edge out Kirby.

Ward Seven will be won by Cordle, followed by very closely Cohen and Fox in almost a tie. The aldermanic candidates seem to stack up against each other pretty well but I think party majority will give Ian Pfeiffer the edge over Jennifer Monteith by just a few points.

Ward Eight Heavy turnout, Cohen still wins followed closely by Cordle and Fox. Arnett will win with about 55 percent of the votes.

I now bring you my prediction for the citywide results:
*Cohen at  35%
*Cordle at  35%

*Fox at 30%
And the new council: Israel, Paone, Bowling, Finlayson, Silverman, Pfeiffer, Stiverson, and Arnett

Yeah. I think it's gonna be that close but with the edge going to Cohen. All of these three candidates have worked long and hard. I cannot quite say the same for all the aldermanic candidates, some of whom of course ran unopposed, but, I tip my hat to all candidates for getting out there and suffering the slings and arrows.  No matter who wins or who does not, let's all commit to making Annapolis the best it can be for everyone.

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LISTEN TO CP Publisher Paul Foer on 1430WNAV at 8:15 every weekday morning.READ CP Publisher Paul Foer's "The Ninth Ward" every Wednesday in The Capital


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